First allow me to offer my credentials that qualify me to offer advice to the millions of Americans that play fantasy football. I have very few. I've only been playing for four years. I've never even won my league. But I do draft a pretty decent team, and those teams have made it to the playoffs for the past few years. I love fantasy football more than my own girlfriend. I follow anything that happens in the National Football League all year round, just for the sake of hoping my fantasy team will be better the next year. So I do think I have knowledge I can pass on to any readers. Just maybe take anything I say during weeks 14 thru 17 with a grain of salt.
I'd like to break this piece down into sections about players who are being underdrafted, players who are being overdrafted, players who have burned me in the past, players who I simply don't trust, and sleepers.
Players that I like who are being drafted too low:
Calvin Johnson: Currently ranked 7th on ESPN and 6th on Yahoo. I think this guy needs to be the 5th person off the board, assuming the four people taken before him are Forte, Charles, Peterson, and McCoy. He is and has been the safest receiver to draft and there is no reason not to expect him to put up 1500+ yards and at least 8 TD's. I'd rather take a safe pick at 5 than gamble that a sophomore Lacy will have an even more productive season than he did last year (which came as a surprise to me.)
Jimmy Graham: Ranked 10th on ESPN and 8th on Yahoo. I'm picking this guy right after Calvin is off the board. This guy is just leaps and bounds better than the next best TE. Was there a game last year where Jimmy didn't score a TD? I mean, I'm sure there was, but it didn't seem like it. The point is that the man scores touchdowns. That's just what he does and Sean Payton's offense is tailor-made for Graham to continue doing what he does best. He'll also have a few games where he'll get you over 100 yards which is just gravy.
Arian Foster: Ranked 9th on ESPN and 26th on Yahoo. Okay, 9th is way too high to pick Foster, but 26th is too low. And in the mock drafts I've done, (on ESPN mind you,) Foster typically doesn't get drafted until the 3rd round. I think Foster is worthy of a 2nd round pick in the 18-20 range. People say that he's injury prone, but the truth is the guy is tough as nails and you can rely on him to score 10 TD's a season if he's healthy. People have concerns about his production in Bill O'Brien's new system where he has an even rockier QB situation than last year, but I think that just means he'll go back to being the Texans' primary playmaker. Remember, he has no Ben Tate to steal carries and he still has Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to spread the field.
Demaryius Thomas: Ranked 15th on ESPN and 7th on Yahoo. Yahoo's got this one spot on. He should be the 7th person picked, right after Eddie Lacy gets drafted (although in my league, I'm picking him before Lacy.) He's one of the most talented receivers in the league and he plays on the same team as Peyton Manning. It's a no-brainer, the guy will put up over 200 points this season and should be drafted well within the top 10.
DeMarco Murray: Ranked 13th on ESPN and 14th on Yahoo. I think DeMarco is the 6th best RB to take in fantasy this year. He plays behind a pretty solid O-line on a team that pretty much only has an offense, albeit a good one. He was top 10 in both rushing yards and TD's last year. It isn't unreasonable to assume he'll do it again since this is only his 3rd year in the league and he's improved each year with no one to steal carries from him. People are concerned about his durability issues when they should be concerned about that god-awful Cowboys' defense. Teams don't tend to run a whole lot when they get behind early (see 2013 Bucs and Redskins.)
Montee Ball: Ranked 25th on ESPN and 12th on Yahoo. I'm starting to think that Yahoo might be the better site to rely on rankings because they got this one right as well. Ball did not have the most impressive start to his 2013 rookie season but I think he improved as the season went on. With Knowshon out of the picture, Ball is going to be used a lot. Running backs in Peyton Manning's usually do well. Like, really well. Look at the season Knowshon had last year. Montee Ball is certainly a much more talented back than Moreno so I expect a big year from him.
Giovani Bernard: Ranked 26th on ESPN and 15th on Yahoo. Right again Yahoo! My favorite running back of the 2013 class, I look for this little guy to have a big year becaaauuuse: no more Jay Gruden. The Bengals offense will actually have a playbook that'll have more than the one play, "F@#! it! Throw it deep to AJ!!" ...Okay, so maybe the Bengals offensive game was a bit more complex than that with Jay, but you can still expect them to try to use the running game a bit more this year. I think Gio will get the majority of carries, but be wary of Jeremy Hill getting most of the goal line carries.
Randall Cobb: Ranked 30th on ESPN and Yahoo. Hey, the two most popular fantasy sites finally agree on a player. And they're both wrong about him. ESPN has him as the 10th best WR and I think he's 6th. I have him above Jordy Nelson and certainly above Alshon Jeffery. Last year, before his injury, Cobb was having a pretty good year. And before that season began, Aaron Rodgers stated that Cobb could easily get 100 catches a season. So the guy who is the best quarterback in the league said that he could get the ball to Cobb 100 times a season. I haven't forgotten that. He's being drafted as a WR2 when he will be WR1.
Andre Ellington: Ranked 46th on ESPN and 18th on Yahoo. Man, I hope there's room on the Ellington Hype-Train for me. Choo Choo! Honestly, I think 18 might be a little high for him, but if he is available in round 3, I would take him with no hesitation. He has an impressive 5.5 ypc on over 100 attempts and his workload will only increase since Mendenhall retired last year. In the ESPN mock drafts that I've done, Ellington is usually still around in the early 4th round and sometimes even the 5th round which is just way too low for him to be taken.
Players that I like who are being drafted too high:
Manning/Brees/Rodgers: 8th ESPN/16th Yahoo, 17th ESPN/19th Yahoo, 12th ESPN/22nd Yahoo. The first two rounds of your fantasy draft are when your picks are the most crucial. I would rather pass on Manning in the first and go with Graham or Lacy or Thomas. The reason why is because in the 12th round, I can probably get Tom Brady or at the least Tony Romo. If it's the third round, and you're confident in your first two picks, then by all means, draft a QB. But I won't be. I'll be picking one of those few RB's or WR's who will average more than 12 points a game. There are only a handful of receivers and even fewer running backs that you can rely on on a weekly basis and you'll need two of each. There are at least 18 quarterbacks who are worthy of starting in fantasy and you most likely only need one of them. (Now if you're in a league that does 2 QB's or 6 point passing TD's, disregard what I just said and go QB early.)
Doug Martin: Ranked 11th on ESPN and 25th on Yahoo. I just can't trust the offense in Tampa Bay. Their Offensive Coordinator has suggested earlier this year that carries will most likely be split between the running backs this year. That alone is enough for me to not want anything to do with the Muscle Hamster, at least not in the first few rounds. Also, I think the O-line in Tampa is suspect. For me personally, I wouldn't consider Martin unless he was available in like round 6. But I think fair value for him would be in the late 4th round.
Le'Veon Bell: Ranked 14th on ESPN and 28th on Yahoo. I love this kid. Not only is he the starting running back for my favorite team, but he went to high school in the same are that I did. But you can't pick your favorites and expect to win. This isn't Pokemon. I think the 2nd round is simply too high for this kid. I'm concerned that Blount will get a decent portion of the goal-line carries that we're going to be intended for Bell. And I'm always nervous about picking a RB on the Steelers because of Tomlin's no-fumble policy. However, I do still think that Le'Veon will be a top 10 back this year. The hiring of Mike Munchak for Pittsburg O-line coach was my favorite staffing move of the offseason. 3rd round is good value for Bell. I just wouldn't pick him before then.
Zac Stacy: Ranked 19th on ESPN and 27th on Yahoo. I have a feeling that Zac Stacy might be the most overdrafted player this year. I think the guy is a great RB2. But he's being drafted like a RB1. I don't think he's a very fast runner, I'm not sold on anyone on the Rams' offense, and he plays the NFC West 6 games out of the season. If he's available in round 4, I'll gladly take him. But I'm not considering him before then.
Reggie Bush: Ranked 29th on ESPN and 45th on Yahoo. Both rankings are too high for Bush. Many people expect Bell to get the majority of carries in Detroit and I am in that crowd. Reggie's not a bad back for PPR but in non-PPR, I wouldn't recommend the headache of picking Bush early, feeling obligated to start him, and then falsely believing starting him is justified because of the three 20 point games he'll have a season. I'd rather go with Bell this year than Bush and I wouldn't go with either before the 6th round.
Toby Gerhart: Ranked 52nd on ESPN and 31st on Yahoo. I didn't think I was going to have to include Gerhart in this section until I saw that he was ranked an eye-popping 31st on Yahoo. Nope. Not worth picking that high. He's maybe a 6th or 7th round pick. There's no justification for picking him in the early 4th round unless you're the Nostradamus of fantasy football and you foresee him rushing for 1600 yards and 8 TD's this year (but I'm guessing you're not and you don't.)
Player's who have broken my heart in the past:
These are players that I've had on my team in previous seasons and have performed in such a way that makes me nervous to draft them. I'll let you (and them) know whether or not I'm ready to give them another chance.
C. J. Spiller: Ranked 40th on ESPN and 35th on Yahoo. Oh man. C. J. No one was higher on you last year than me. They said they we're going to feed you the ball until you threw up. Only it seemed like you weren't ready for the workload. I understand you had injury issues but c'mon. You didn't even break 1000 yards. And it wasn't until week 6 that I was able to bring myself to sit you. Luckily someone got to you before I did in the league where I play for real money. Am I willing to draft you again this year? Not unless I can get you after the 6th round. C.J. it's not you... Well it kind of is you, but it's also your entire team. I just don't like drafting players on crappy teams unless they've proven that they can still be relied on.
T. Y. Hilton: Ranked 67th on ESPN and 62nd on Yahoo. I thought you were sleeper gold last year. I'm pretty sure I got you in round 11. In week 2 you had 120 yards. And then you put up 26 points the week before Cobb went down. You earned a spot as a starter. But then what did you do? You put up 4 points the following week and 2 points the week after that. Then, after your bye and after I thought you couldn't be trusted you scored 30 points WHILE ON MY BENCH. You had 11 games where you put up less than 8 points. So I'm ignoring every report I hear that says you are now the number one receiver in Indy. I'm not picking you this time... Unless I can get the funding for my kickstarter where other players in other leagues pay me to intentionally leave you on my bench ensuring you have an explosive game.
Colin Kaepernick: Ranked 71st on ESPN and 84th on Yahoo. Colin you weren't bad last year. You only had 7 games where you scored less than 16 points. It's just that two of those games were when I went up against Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. And I needed you man. Plus you had four games where you scored less than 10 points and that's unacceptable considering where I drafted you. But I'm willing to give you another chance if I can get you for the right price like round 9 or 10.
Chris Johnson: Ranked 57th on ESPN and 75th on Yahoo. Remember 2 seasons ago when I drafted you in the 2nd round? You played just abysmally for the first few weeks. I was impetuous then and dropped you the moment I was able. But what did you do after my roommate and arch-nemesis picked you up? You scored 30 points for him. You ended up doing okay that season, finishing in the top 10 for RB's. You rubbed it in my face and it hurt. But last season you had another mediocre year for some other poor fool's team. I'm not ready to trust you this year, especially since the offensive line in New York is worse than the one you had in Tennessee. And we all know you need a good one to succeed.
Maurice Jones-Drew: Ranked 80th on ESPN and 81st on Yahoo. Sweet, sweet MJD. We've been together for two consecutive seasons. Two years ago you had that lisfranc injury. I'm still not quite sure what a lisfranc is but I cringe every time I hear someone say it. And last year you were just an old back on a bad team. Am I willing to give us another shot? Maybe, but only if it's an open-relationship. And by that I mean only if I can handcuff you to McFadden. I'm willing to put Jacksonville behind us. And speaking of Jacksonville...
Cecil Shorts III: Ranked 83rd on ESPN and 103rd on Yahoo. NO. I'm not doing it. Not this year. I don't care how talented you are, I'm not picking someone from Jacksonville. You have no idea how badly I needed you last year after Cobb went down. And I know it wasn't your fault, you had Gabbert throwing you the ball for the first half of the season and Henne for the second half. But until I see some improvement in the rest of your offense, I can't risk picking you.
Players who I do not trust for reasons based solely on my gut:
Marshawn Lynch: Ranked 5th on ESPN and 10th on Yahoo. His age combined with his career workload and his offseason holdout makes me uneasy about him this year. Plus Christine Michaels and other backups look pretty good in pre-season, so maybe this is the year where they stop relying on Marshawn as an every-down back. There's no real evidence I can give as to why I think he'll fall off, but I won't pick him in the first two rounds.
Alfred Morris: Ranked 23rd on ESPN and 24th on Yahoo. You might have figured out earlier as I was talking about Gio, I don't like Jay Gruden. I think he'll run a similar offense in D.C. as he did in Cincy, one that involves a lot of deep balls and little running attacks. I also think he'll try to use Helu in a similar manner as Gio was used with the Bengals. And for those reasons, I won't draft Morris... Aw, who am I kidding? I love Alf. I'll probably get distracted by the fact that he's rushed for over 1200 yards both seasons he's been in the league and I'll take him in the third round anyway. But I'll be uneasy about it.
Larry Fitzgerald: Ranked 34th on ESPN and 39th on Yahoo. I think this is the year where Malcolm Floyd replaces Fitzy as the go-to-target. Larry will be 31 this year, and while that's not necessarily old for a receiver, he's still not young. I'd rather go with other Cardinals players this year than Larry Fitzgerald.
Ryan Matthews: Ranked 37th on ESPN and 32nd on Yahoo. I just don't trust this guy's durability. I know earlier I was saying that durability issues were not a concern with DeMarco Murray despite them having similar heath records, but for some reason I'm much more concerned about Matthews. Also I think that Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown will take away quite a few carries from Matthews.
Vernon Davis: Ranked 50th on ESPN and 54th on Yahoo. Did you know that Vernon Davis is 30? That's not really important, but still, I thought he was younger than that. I've never had Davis on my team because he's always been drafted earlier than I was willing to consider him. And it will probably happen again this year. There were four games where VD didn't score at all last year. That's too many games for me to justify picking him, a tight end, in the top 60.
Cordarrelle Patterson: Ranked 61st on ESPN and 47th on Yahoo. It doesn't sound like Patterson will be used in the return games as much this year and I don't think he'll put up very high numbers in the receiving game. Also I tend to avoid receivers when the QB situation is a question mark.
Players to target in later rounds, A.KA., Sleepers:
Rashad Jennings: Ranked 55th on ESPN and 38th on Yahoo. Okay, maybe this isn't technically a sleeper since he's typically getting drafted somewhere in the first six rounds. But I think it's worth mentioning that he's looked pretty good in the pre-season, (well, as good as a Giant can look,) and that Coughlin likes using his RB's. He's 4th round value and a lot of people aren't looking at him until the 6th.
Ray Rice: Ranked 54th on ESPN and 82nd on Yahoo. Even though he's ranked 54th on ESPN, he's not going until the 7th or 8th rounds in mock drafts. Worst-case scenario, he's a decent flex option. Best-case scenario and extremely unlikely scenario, he'll be a low end RB1 in the 14 games he'll play this season. Remember, he's got a new OC, he's only 27, and he's only a few years removed from being a top-5 fantasy back.
Jeremy Maclin: Ranked 65th on ESPN and 68th on Yahoo. I want an Eagles player on my team. That Chip Kelly offense made Desean Jackson look like a top-5 receiver last year. He wasn't number one on the depth chart when him and Maclin were both playing, so I have to believe that Maclin will at least be WR2 option this year.
Golden Tate: Ranked 74th on ESPN and Yahoo. Man the NFC North is going to be fun to watch this year. This guy will be a low end WR2 or high end WR3 with Stafford throwing him the ball. I see him getting over 1000 yards this year which is pretty good for 8th round value.
Eric Decker: Ranked 81st on ESPN and 76th on Yahoo. Eric Decker scored a lot of touchdowns at Denver. Granted, he had Manning throwing him the ball for two years, but still. He's now the best receiver in New York and I think he'll have a year where he'll have over 8 TD's.
Jay Cutler: Ranked 119th on ESPN and 70th on Yahoo. 15th ranked QB on ESPN. In that Marc Trestman offense with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Santonio Holmes, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett to throw to? I'll take one Cutler please.
Carlos Hyde: Ranked 121st on ESPN and 90th Yahoo. Maybe I'm being a Buckeye fanboy. But this guy is special. It definitely looks like he'll take over the reins when Gore is done in San Fran, which most assume will be after this year. I think he could possibly get almost 100 carries this year, but maybe that's just me drinking the kool-aid. Regardless, he's definitely worth a stash in keeper leagues.
Jordan Reed: Ranked 146th on ESPN and 95th on Yahoo. I'm really big on Jordan Reed this year. I think he'll do well in Jay Gruden's offense and I think he has the potential to be a top 5 tight end this year.
And that about wraps up my thoughts on the fantasy draft this year. Before I end my inaugural post, I'd like to offer my thoughts about kickers. There's a time and place to draft a kicker, and it is not before the 15th round. Don't be stupid and take Prater in the 12th. If you want to go with a strategy for kickers, one that I find effective is to draft the kicker that is on the same team as your QB. That way even if the drive by your QB only results in a field goal, at least you'll get some points. And that's all the advice I have. Hopefully this read wasn't an entire was of time. I'll be back next week after my league finally has it's draft.
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